In order to develop the bicycle traffic of the future in Germany, the current federal government is following the National Cycling Plan 3.0, whose targets may be set far too low. This is the conclusion of a recent study by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI). It considers a tripling of the previously targeted figures to be feasible. Provided that more is invested, measures are implemented more quickly and both political and individual will drive the project forward.
During the coronavirus pandemic, we saw for a brief moment how dynamically traffic patterns can change within our cities and beyond. Quickly created bike lanes, parking spaces and rededicated lanes gave us a glimpse of the alternatives our everyday lives have in store. Not all of this was thought through perfectly, and some of it has long since been cancelled. Nevertheless, metropolises such as Paris, Seville, Milan and London have turned the enthusiasm of the time into a long-term strategy. There, cycling will play a much greater role in the future.
Is 15 per cent already the maximum?
And in Germany? Here, the federal government wants to increase the proportion of bicycles in the mix of local transport modes from 11 per cent in 2017 to 15 per cent by 2030. The distance travelled by bicycle in everyday life is to increase from 3.7 kilometres to 6.0 kilometres. Overall, this would increase the share of cycling in transport performance from three per cent to six per cent in 2030. According to Claus Doll, Clemens Brauer and Dorien Duffner-Korbee, much more would be possible. The researchers from the Competence Centre ‘Sustainability and Infrastructure Systems’ at ISI have set out exactly how much in their joint study. The study is entitled ‘The potential of cycling for climate protection and for liveable cities and regions. New forecasting methods for supply and demand in Germany as a cycling nation up to 2035’. It was commissioned by the federal office of the Allgemeiner Deutscher Fahrrad-Club e. V. (ADFC).
The complete version of the study comprises 77 pages. We will try to summarise the main contents as compactly as possible and as comprehensively as necessary for you.
1. What kind of scientific work is this?
2. What are the basic requirements for better cycling?
3. What potential does the study reveal for cycling in Germany?
4. How can the outlined potential be realised?
5. What concrete actions do the researchers recommend?
6. In what time frame can the study’s vision be realised?
1. What kind of scientific work is this?
As the name suggests, the experts from ISI have analysed potentials. It is neither an analysis of the current situation nor a scientifically substantiated forecast and certainly not a firmly formulated plan of action. None of what you read there has been decided by a municipality, a district, a federal state or the federal government. In our view, this is a pity, as many of the scenarios contained in the report sound like music to the ears of cyclists.
Instead, the more than 70 pages of the report do indeed provide a survey of the current situation. However, the researchers expand the picture to include aspects that are missing from other forecasts. They estimate what effects will result if our values and attitudes towards active mobility in general and cycling in particular change. They include modes of transport in their predictions, but take into account the quality that people ascribe to them. And they note that pedelecs have now penetrated the bicycle market to a much greater extent than they did years ago.
2. What are the basic requirements for better cycling?
The study identifies a cycling infrastructure in which motorised private transport (MIT) and protected bike lanes are structurally separated from each other as an essential cornerstone for cycling that people like to use. The infrastructure is made up of cycling networks that are ‘dense, seamless, safe and comfortable’.
In terms of planning and implementation, the researchers consider a hierarchical system within urban passenger transport. Interestingly, although the focus is on cycling, it is not cyclists who are at the top. Instead, starting position one is reserved for pedestrians. This is followed by cycling. Public transport has priority number three. Motorised private transport only appears at the end of this list.
Personal incentives and legal requirements in the mix
The study also attributes a key role to the human factor. Good cycle path networks alone would not make people switch from car to bike. This also requires a ‘positive cycling culture’. This could be created by using campaigns to promote cycling or by encouraging pedalling through possible reward systems.
Measures are also needed for the urban environment that would greatly reduce car traffic as we see it in many places today.
- traffic management measures to calm traffic in neighbourhoods
- 30 km/h as the standard speed limit within city limits
- less space for stationary and moving car traffic
- redistribution of space gained in favour of pedestrian and bicycle traffic
- higher parking charges
Where some of these basic conditions have already been created, it is possible to see what can be gained. Cities such as Münster and Oldenburg report a 47 per cent and 43 per cent share of cycling in the urban transport mix respectively. As a reminder, the National Cycling Plan 3.0 is aimed at 15 per cent by 2030.
3. What potential does the study reveal for cycling in Germany?
The differences to the targets of the National Cycling Plan are striking. Across the country as a whole, the researchers consider a 45 per cent share of cycling in the transport mix on routes up to a maximum length of 30 kilometres to be realistic. In certain regions, this figure could even rise to 63 per cent.
This change would go hand in hand with considerable reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. In passenger transport, up to 19 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents could be saved for the route lengths mentioned. That would be a reduction of 33.5 per cent in this segment compared to 2017. A reduction that would mean a big plus for us all.
4. How can the outlined potential be realised?
True to the motto: nothing comes from nothing, the potential increases and reductions mentioned above involve considerable efforts. The study categorises these efforts into three modules. They do not build on each other, but are interlinked and must therefore be initiated in parallel.
Module 1: Inviting infrastructure
The cycle path network of cities, municipalities and regions will be extended by a factor of three and merged into a nationwide, seamless cycle path network. Based on proven concepts from the Netherlands, the focus is on safety and comfort for cyclists, especially in the design of intersections and bicycle parking facilities. At the same time, pedestrians and cyclists are given a legal framework that ensures equal rights in passenger transport.
Cyclists are likely to rate a bicycle parking garage like this one in Bonn from the Swiss company V-Locker much more favourably than the parking facilities that are usually found at train stations or bus stops these days.
Module 2: Cycling in the environmental network
Cycling and public transport are closely linked. Stops and railway stations will be equipped with parking facilities that significantly exceed current standards in terms of size, safety and comfort. Bicycles can be taken on buses and trains at a favourable price, with sufficient space provided and easy to book.
Module 3: Bicycle-friendly municipalities
In line with the concept of the 15-minute city, cities and municipalities are placing local amenities at the centre of their investment, urban planning, regulatory and pricing policy measures. The majority of everyday journeys for work, errands and leisure can be made on foot and by bike.
This bicycle traffic light in Rotterdam has a rain sensor. If it registers that it is raining, cyclists receive a green light more often than in dry weather. © Gemeente Rotterdam
5. What concrete actions do the researchers recommend?
Before the study names individual measures, it once again places people at the centre. Without the right attitude, both in politics and among local people, none of the things mentioned can be realised. Firstly, will and courage are needed, then financial and human resources will follow. In places where the commitment to strengthening cycling has led to real action across society, one can already see the results of great efforts. The federal and state governments have a duty to help smaller local authorities in particular and support them with money, expertise and other necessary resources.
The recommendations for action include the following points:
- creating network concepts based on positive examples from the Netherlands, Belgium or Denmark
- speeding up the construction of cycle paths by shortening planning and construction times
- upgrading the quality of existing cycle paths
- reallocating existing areas in favour of cycle paths, cycle parking facilities, footpaths and recreational areas
- removing lanes and parking spaces reserved for cars
- giving local authorities greater freedom in the implementation of individual transport policies
- enshrining various utilisation requirements for roads in terms of urban mobility in a reformed building code
- initiating collaborative design processes in which all stakeholders come together early and unbureaucratically
6. In what time frame can the study’s vision be realised?
The researchers seem to be well aware of the enormous undertaking that would be involved in realising the potential. They admit that it will take ‘a lot of time and considerable resources’ to turn the vision into a real snapshot. They are therefore thinking beyond the target year 20230 of the current National Cycling Plan and are aiming for 2035. However, this date is not set in stone. Depending on the initial situation, financial and human resources and the consistency of action by politicians, business and society, parts of the vision could be realised more quickly or more slowly. This presumably also applies whether Germany as a whole is considered as a frame of reference or individual regions.
Study: Doll, C.; Brauer, C.; Duffner-Korbee, D. (2024): Potenziale des Radverkehrs für den Klimaschutz und für lebenswerte Städte und Regionen. Neue Prognoseverfahren für Angebot und Nachfrage im Fahrradland Deutschland bis 2035 – Langfassung. Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI, Karlsruhe, im Auftrag des ADFC Bundesverbands, Berlin.
Pictures: Allgemeiner Deutscher Fahrrad-Club e.V. (ADFC); V-Locker AG
