“We’re delighted that bicycles and ebikes remain popular with consumers for everyday mobility and recreation.” With this sentence from its CEO Burkhard Stork, the ZIV German Bicycle Industry Association introduces its assessment of the bike industry in Germany for 2023. The statement sounds positive, but not too euphoric, right? On the one hand, this may be due to the usually pleasantly matter-of-fact manner of Stork himself. Another reason may be that this sentence could have been worded very differently. Something like this: Sales, production, exports and imports of bicycles are all experiencing significant declines in the double-digit range in some cases. Much more sobering and just as correct.
There is no doubt that the bicycle industry has had a year that many companies – both national and international – would prefer to forget. Declining sales. Profit warnings from listed players. Bankruptcies. Product recalls. It is understandable that the industry association does not overemphasise these topics in its review of the past year. The media already do this extensively, and sometimes we do too. In addition, the industry cannot detach itself from global phenomena such as the profound uncertainty caused by current military, political, economic and social conflicts. And so declining figures become “attaining a very high level”. For you, let’s break down what this actually means.
1. How many ebikes were sold in Germany in 2023?
2. How much money is spent on an ebike?
3. What are the most popular types of ebike?
4. Where do people buy?
5. Bicycle stock in Germany
6. Ebike production in Germany
7. Export of ebikes from Germany
8. Import of ebikes to Germany
9. Forecast for 2024
1. How many ebikes were sold in Germany in 2023?
Last year, we had already surmised that ebikes would soon overtake bicycles in Germany in terms of new models purchased. The time had come in 2023. A four percentage point gap has turned into a six per cent lead. Around 53 per cent of bikes sold had electric assistance. Only 47 per cent still managed without it. And we have probably not yet reached the end of this drifting apart. The ZIV at least expects the trend to continue, meaning that the figures for 2024 could possibly diverge even more.
Within two years, sales of ebikes have increased by ten per cent, while bikes without motor assistance have lost ten per cent over the same period.
However, this proportionate advance is due to the weakening sales of conventional bicycles. Their sales fell from 2.4 million units to 1.9 million – a whopping drop of more than 20 per cent. There are probably several reasons for the decline. In addition to the generally noticeable reluctance to buy, the considerable discounts on parts of the ebike segment are certainly another reason. If the price difference between a high-quality bike without motor assistance and a discounted ebike is suddenly less than before, some people are likely to opt for the latter.
Overview of the number of bikes with and without electric assistance sold in Germany from 2017 to 2023
Nevertheless, this could not prevent sales of ebikes from falling. However, it was less dramatic here. The number fell from 2.2 million to 2.1 million. Overall, however, we are talking about the second-highest figure ever recorded in Germany. This results in a total of four million bicycles sold. This puts the figure at a level between that of 2017 and 2018. In 2022, 4.6 million units were recorded.
Overview of the number of ebikes sold in Germany from 2017 to 2023
2. How much money is spent on an ebike?
In contrast to the decrease in the number of bicycles, the amount of money we spend on buying an ebike has increased. From the previous all-time high of 2,800 euros, it went up to a new record of 2,950 euros. This figure is all the more surprising given the significant price reductions that characterised the market in the second half of 2023. From the ZIV’s perspective, the increase reflects growing demand for high-quality models and a high proportion of leasing purchases.
Regular bicycles cannot quite keep pace with this development. On average, people spend 470 euros on such a bike. In 2022 it was just 500 euros.
Overview of the average price of a bicycle sold with and without electric assistance in Germany from 2019 to 2023
3. What are the most popular types of ebike?
The higher purchase price for ebikes also reflects the flourishing demand for e-cargo bikes. While other statistics show a drop of 14.5 per cent, in this case there is a big plus sign in front of the figure. From 165,000 units sold in 2022, the figure rose to 189,000 units in 2023. The fact that a cargo bike with a motor can be a substitute for a car here and there – whether in a private or professional context – certainly contributes to its popularity. The actual ebike can quickly cost around 5,000 or 6,000 euros. But on the one hand, subsidy bonuses and leasing offers alleviate the financial burden. On the other hand, it pays off very quickly compared to the amount that can be saved by not using a car.
Overview of the number of cargo bikes sold in Germany from 2019 to 2023
For the second year in a row, however, e-mountain bikes are the most popular ebikes. They gained an additional three percentage points over trekking ebikes in second place and city ebikes in third place. They are followed in fourth place by the aforementioned e-cargo bikes, which increased their share from 7.5 per cent to nine per cent. E-ATBs are a new addition to the list for 2023. ATB is the abbreviation for All Terrain Bikes. The ZIV defines this as motor-assisted ebikes that you can ride both on roads and on light off-road terrain. Well, this also applies to countless models from the other categories. It is still difficult to judge how helpful this further subdivision can be. Perhaps this will become clearer over the coming years.
The smallest shares in sales are recorded by the group of e-road bikes, e-gravel bikes and e-fitness bikes with a total of one per cent and the group of speed pedelecs and “real” ebikes with a total of half a per cent.
Overview of the shares of the different categories of ebikes in the total quantity sold in 2023
4. Where do people buy?
The quantity and type of ebikes we buy may have changed. However, the places where we do so have remained the same. The respective shares have not changed by more than one per cent. The lion’s share of sales is still handled by specialist dealers. The total of 77 per cent is divided into 74 per cent for stationary specialist retailers and three per cent for their online offerings. With around one fifth, the various internet retailers together come a distant second.
If the trend continues unabated, the segment of hypermarkets, DIY stores and discounters could soon drop out of the ZIV statistics completely. Their market share is now just one per cent. Two years ago, the figure was still four per cent.
Overview of the share of different distribution channels in bicycle sales in Germany in 2023
5. Bicycle stock in Germany
As more bicycles are bought, the number of bicycles ready to ride in Germany continues to rise. In the meantime, 84 million bicycles are in circulation. That is 1.2 million more than in the previous year. According to the Federal Statistical Office, there were around 84.6 million people living in Germany on 30 September 2023. This means that, statistically speaking, there would be almost exactly one bicycle for every person living here.
Overview of the number of bikes with and without electric assistance in Germany from 2019 to 2023
From a purely mathematical perspective, the increase is entirely due to the rise in the number of ebikes. After 9.8 million units in 2022, the overview now lists around eleven million units. The ZIV considers two main motives to be responsible for this: the purchase of a new ebike to replace an outdated bike and the purchase of second or third bikes. This means that those who already use an ebike are more likely to buy another model for a different purpose. This could be for leisure riding, for use as sports equipment or as an alternative means of transport. According to the industry association, the market is not yet saturated. A statement that bike manufacturers will certainly be happy to hear after a difficult year like 2023.
Overview of the number of ebikes in Germany from 2017 to 2023
6. Ebike production in Germany
In line with the weaker sales figures, fewer ebikes were also produced in Germany. After the 1.7 million units produced in 2022, around 100,000 fewer were built last year. This corresponds to a decline of 5.9 per cent. Production of bikes without an e-drive was reduced even more significantly. After a drop of around 15 per cent, the number was down to 726,000 units. This results in a total of 2.3 million bicycles manufactured in Germany. At the all-time high in 2022, the total was 2.6 million units.
German companies had around 710,000 bicycles produced abroad in 2023. This figure includes both ebikes and bikes without an e-drive. As the ZIV does not provide a more detailed breakdown of this data, we cannot say how the shares between the two categories are weighted. What is certain, however, is that the European Union is the location of most of these extended workbenches. Around 90 per cent of production comes from EU countries.
7. Export of ebikes from Germany
A large proportion of ebikes produced in Germany are subsequently sold abroad. According to the ZIV, exports are primarily focussed on EU countries as well as Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland as members of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). The most important customer country is therefore the Netherlands:
- Netherlands: 23 per cent (2022: 22 per cent)
- Austria and France: 13 per cent each (2022: 12 per cent each)
- Belgium: 13 per cent (2022: 11 per cent)
- Switzerland: 10 per cent (2022: 11 per cent)
- Italy: 5 per cent (2022: 6 per cent)
Despite the difficult market conditions, exports even increased slightly. At 610,000 ebikes, around 30,000 more were exported in 2023 than in 2022.
8. Import of ebikes to Germany
If many bike shops still have warehouses full of older models, it is obvious that people are more reluctant to purchase new goods. This is exactly what happened in 2023. In terms of ebikes and regular bikes, imports fell by around 21 per cent. For the ebike category, this meant a decline of almost 16 per cent from 1.45 million units in 2022 to 1.22 million units in 2023.
More and more of the imported goods come from EU countries. The share is rising from 69 per cent in 2022 to 71 per cent in 2023. At the same time, Asia’s share of imports is decreasing. It is falling slightly from 27 per cent to 26 per cent. In this respect, the domestic market is strengthening its independence from players on other continents and ensuring more reliable supply chains. Anti-dumping duties on ebikes from certain parts of Asia are also contributing to this development.
9. Forecast for 2024
As expected, the ZIV has a positive outlook for the future. Its arguments in favour of bicycles and ebikes are ones that we know only too well. Rising bus and train fares. Higher rents. More expensive bills at the supermarket and for the electricity supplier. Together with an increased awareness of the environment and our own health, this will make mobility on two wheels appear attractive in the long term, says ZIV CEO Burkhard Stork. Let’s see to what extent this forecast materialises in the coming year. After all, all the factors mentioned have the potential to dampen the buying mood for some time to come. In addition, some of them will also make bicycles more expensive. Of course, the imbalance with the oversupply of bicycles and certain components will gradually correct itself. However, hardly anyone can currently predict with any great certainty what will happen around us in the world. Hoping for better times is therefore not an entirely bad strategy.
Burkhard Stork, ZIV Zweirad-Industrie-Verband CEO
Pictures: ZIV Zweirad-Industrie-Verband
