Ebike prices may not be decreasing, but discounts are more numerous, averaging 20% on many ebikes. Is there a recession?
Let’s analyze what’s hindering ebike sales and the likely rebounds
- Boom and bust cycle: vendors purchased huge quantities to meet skyrocketing demand especially during covid, then inflation curtailed purchasing power / but several factors can support ebike demand
- The war in Ukraine boosted raw materials and shipping prices / but a slowing world economy is already taming them, and…
- Inflation has made everything more expensive / but it’s slowing down considerably
- Most likely first adopters have already purchased an ebike / but there’s still room for newcomers
- Youngsters are not keen to e-biking / but they could be in the future, if some measures will be taken
- Perhaps ebike are too expensive, especially those manufactured in the Western world / but their quality enables them to be more reliable, last longer and ride more pleasantly
- Scarcity of bike lanes and bike parks prevents urban areas from providing safe riding / but many cities and national governments are endeavoring to promote bike usage, like in France
Boom and bust cycle: perhaps strong demand has deceived vendors into creating a bubble, inflating stocks, but sales are still strong
Indeed, covid precautions have prompted people to avoid contagion, giving up crowded gym clubs and public transports, thus embracing ebikes as an alternative. Manufacturers and resellers hurried up to beef up production in stocks, sometimes overdoing it. Some markets where flooded with ebikes, compelling ebike shops to cut prices and even causing some bankruptcies. That notwithstanding, Ebike sales volumes are still higher than those of the pre-covid era.
Haibike Trekking 8 2023 with an reduction of nearly 30 per cent
War in Ukraine and more have made raw materials and deliveries more expensive
Not only e-bikes are made of expensive raw materials, especially battery and motor, but they often must be imported from countries far away from production facilities. Shipping costs recent hike has impacted ebike prices, also because they must be delivered to purchasers who don’t live in ebike manufacturing countries, mostly Germany, the Netherlands and China. E-bikes prices have increased, percentagewise, less than car prices, albeit scale economies allowed by their widening diffusion should have brought prices down.
Nevertheless, expensive raw materials further widen the price gap between electric bikes and cars, since the latter require much larger quantities of raw materials for their production. City eBikes being an economically sound alternative to cars, more people could be enticed to quit driving for riding, especially in urban areas. Anyway, the slowing economy is already causing raw material and delivery prices to fall, although they won’t probably equal the levels of the pre-covid years.
Inflation has inflated eBike prices, but is considerably slowing
In order to attenuate the effects of both 2008 and covid crisis, central banks have inundated economies with money, during several years of zero interest loans and their purchase of national debt, what has doped public spending and subsidies. That has created inflation. Now, high interest rates shrink money supply worldwide, what reduces inflation, although prices will never go back to 2019 levels.
Have most first adopters already bought their E bikes, saturating the market? Maybe, but huge layers of the population may take over
In France, a recent survey found out that 68% of electric bike owners are aged more than 55. That narrows the scope of future e-bike buyers, since an ebike lasts on average 10 years, and is not inexpensive. Still, in France like in many other European countries, very little has been done to promote bike and ebike usage for students, for instance. Bike paths for commuting to school are rare, while no schools sufficiently provide sheltered bike parks. Incentives and policies are being implemented to promote ebike usage for commuters in many European countries. In France, if you jettison a diesel or gasoline car that is older than 16 years, you get a public subsidy up to €1500 for the purchase of an ebike.
Ebike ownership by age in France
Young people seldom buy e-bikes : it’s also a matter of education
The above mentioned survey states that only 3% of e-bike owners are aged between 26 and 35. Nevertheless, since commuting by ebike is getting more and more popular, one can easily forecast that it won’t take much longer before even this class of age will follow the example of youth in countries like the Netherlands or Finland.
France’s government deems education necessary to promote bicycle adoption by French youth. Some parts of its program:
- Make cycling accessible to everyone, from an early age.
- The aim is for 850,000 children to be able to ride a bike every year.
- Since 2019, 200,000 children have been trained through the “Savoir rouler à vélo (knowing how to ride a bycicle)” program.
Are quality e-bikes really too expensive? Or does quality pay off in the medium and longer-term?
Quality costs, and is a necessary investment especially if one frequently rides his ebike. For instance, a high-quality wheel will not get twisted, turning straight diminishes brake pads and discs wear, enabling faster speeds, allowing batteries and motors to last longer and providing better riding comfort. High-quality batteries will last longer, deliver the same power no matter the level of charge, be less likely to catch fire, etc.
Scarcity of bike infrastructures is a hindrance, but the situation is improving
Bike lanes are paramount to enable bicycle diffusion in urban areas. Commuting to work by bike is still too dangerous in too many cities. Building bike paths may be expensive, but it pays off in terms of public health and wealth, reducing car expenses and pollution, traffic jams and stress. The Netherlands reckon at least €5 billion a year of GNP increase due to widespread bike usage, to say nothing about its positive effects on environment and biodiversity.
