World Market for Electric Bike Motors: Bosch, Shimano & Bafang Dominate

Source of the ebike motor market data

Obviously, is not very easy to gauge worldwide ebike motor sales. There is a multitude of sales channels: shops, ebike manufacturers, public and company ebike fleets, online resellers, etc. We relied upon the data published by Velotech general manager Ernst Brust. When asked where his market analysis is based on, Ernst Brust stated: “(…) The market shares mentioned are based on my over 30 years of experience and expertise in the bicycle industry. These estimates come from a combination of industry observations, market analyses and close contacts with manufacturers and dealers that I have built up over the years.”

Understandably, the five leading suppliers mentioned by Velotech questioned the reliability and soundness of the method used to collect and sensitize this data, excepted Shimano. Of course, everybody wants to demonstrate its leadership. We don’t think it is really worth arguing about the exactitude of these ciphers. They seem quite likely to be enough truthful to us. History shows that the larger the market share conquered, the more likely is to shrink. Unless one is too young to remember Pan Am and Kodak, just to quote two examples thereof.

The value of the ebike motor market

This market is valued at $3.96 billion per year and is expected to exceed the market value of $8.27 billion by 2029, registering a CAGR of 16.16%.

The ebike motor market is growing rapidly due to a number of factors, such as the promotion of environmentally-friendly transport, health awareness and the growing importance attached to sustainable transport. Increasing gas and noise emissions from vehicles are leading to high levels of pollution in major cities around the world. Demand for clean energy and agile vehicles is growing, driving the global market for electric bicycles. In the medium term, in addition to customers’ growing preference for adventure and leisure activities, the expansion of e-bike applications in various sectors, such as rental services and logistics, should fuel demand for e-bike motors.
Source : https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/e-bike-motor-market

More than a motor, a propulsion system

An electric bike’s motor does much more than provide propulsion for pedaling assistance. In fact, it’s the real nerve center of the electric bike. It harmonizes the assistance output with the pedaling cadence, the torque delivered on the pedal, the slope of the terrain, the selected gearing of the cassette, and more. In the case of the latest-generation Bosch Performance CX (Gen5), it even detects the force of the foot strike on the pedal to enable better starting when stopping on an uphill slope, or overcoming a difficult obstacle.

In fact, it would be better to call it a drive system, because even the software and chips that record mileage and usage data, or regulate the operation of lighting and other controls, are in the motor. You can easily replace your display and control unit, as all the data is stored in the motor. This is the center of a veritable electronic and mechanical ecosystem. Even the bike’s transmission components, such as sprockets, cassettes, chains and chainrings, must be harmonized with the motor, otherwise incompatibility will at least reduce performance, if not block it. That’s why, in order to gauge the spread of different types of electric bikes on the market, it’s better to refer to the motor rather than the brand of bike. This is despite the fact that there are a handful of brands in Europe and the rest of the world that are more important than the others, such as Cube and KTM in Europe, Engwe and Samebike in Asia, Trek and Radpower in the USA. Indeed, for example, there’s more difference between a Shimano-powered urban bike and one with a Bosch motor, than between a KTM urban bike and a Cube urban bike. All the more so as essential equipment such as shock absorbers, saddles, lighting, brakes, etc. can often be the same on ebikes from different brands.

The top three electric bike motor manufacturers

While there are many competitors, in terms of worldwide distribution, three manufacturers clearly stand out from the crowd: Bosch, Shimano and Bafang. All three have in common an extensive dealer network distributed fairly evenly across the globe, Bosch being, among other things, the world’s leading automotive supplier. Shimano, on the other hand, is the world’s leading bicycle equipment supplier, thanks to its derailleurs, cassettes and brakes. Bosch dominates the German and European markets with 70% and 50% shares respectively, and is also the world leader with 25%.

Shimano manages to capture 20% of the market both in Europe and worldwide, probably thanks to its global dominance in the derailleur and brake markets.

Bafang is the dominant brand in Asia, with wide distribution also in markets with low purchasing power, such as Eastern Europe and South America. In fact, hub motors, in which the Chinese manufacturer specializes, are less expensive than bottom bracket motors. That’s why Bafang doesn’t even reach one percent of the German market, whereas it has a good 15% in Europe, thanks mainly to the eastern and southern part of the continent. Thanks to economies of scale and  labor costs lower in China than in Europe, Bafang seems to be the only competitor capable of dethroning Bosch worldwide. Of course, the latter also has factories in China for automotive equipment, but its production of electric bicycles is concentrated in Europe.

Despite high growth rates, it’s a tough market

Also worth noting is the geographically homogeneous performance of Germany’s Brose, with 6% of the market in Germany, while it conquers 7% of the market both in Europe and worldwide. Here again, we’re talking about a huge automotive equipment manufacturer that can benefit from the logistics of its distribution network, albeit not of its dealers.

Yamaha, which was the very first to produce an electric bike motor (and an EAB) in 1993, is doubling its worldwide stake compared with Europe, with 10% and 5% of the market respectively. It is obviously much more widespread in Asia, being Japanese. Nevertheless, it has just withdrawn from the juicy market for electric bikes and their motors in the USA. Further proof of the difficulty of producing electric bike motors with sufficient profitability. Damn!

It will be interesting to see the evolution of other minor manufacturers, such as the German giant ZF Micro Mobility (here’s another automotive supplier) and China’s DJI (world leader in drones), or small companies like Italy’s Polini. These three also have obvious synergies, having already been producing electric motors for several decades.

The fact that even behemoths like Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Peugeot/Stellantis and Porsche subcontract the production of their e-bike motors to the aforementioned manufacturers shows that conquering the e-bike drive system market is a tall order. Time will tell whether we’re heading for a concentration of manufacturers, as is happening in the car and truck markets, or whether the pluralism of producers will remain and even increase. The 23% global market share of minor manufacturers would seem to support the latter prediction. To be continued.

Which will be number one within a few years? Can you share your take?

Pictures : Bosch, www.velojournal.ch